Poster Presentation Australian Marine Sciences Association Annual Meeting 2023

Skilful ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes (#369)

Steph Brodie 1 2 3 , Mercedes Pozo Buil 2 3 , Heather Welch 2 3 , Steven J Bograd 2 3 , Elliott L Hazen 2 3 , Jarrod A Santora 4 5 , Rachel Seary 2 3 4 , Michael G Jacox 2 3 6
  1. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Queensland BioSciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia , QLD, Australia
  2. Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA
  3. Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA
  4. Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
  5. Department of Applied Math, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, Australia
  6. Physical Sciences Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratories, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA

Forecasting physical conditions and ecological responses on sub-seasonal to annual timescales benefits marine resource users and decision-makers to anticipate environmental variability and change yet remains operationally elusive. We applied seasonal forecasts to assess the capacity of two management tools in the California Current Ecosystem to provide information up to 12 months ahead. The tools use ocean temperature anomalies to: (1) inform risk assessments that mitigate whale entanglements in a crab fishery; and (2) guide the timing of a fishery closure to protect loggerhead sea turtles. In both cases, forecasts accurately predicted anomalous conditions, and may prepare resource managers and conservation practitioners, 1-12 months in advance. Importantly, skilful forecasts were made during an extended marine heatwave coinciding with high rates of turtle bycatch and whale entanglements. We compared the efficacy of readily available global forecasts versus dynamically downscaled forecasts to the California Current Ecosystem, and found these management tools can be skilfully forecast using global ocean forecasts. We show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity and may be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members than global forecasts. These results highlight capacity for transitioning ocean management tools to forecast systems, providing information for managers and stakeholders to anticipate and adapt to seasonal and longer-term climate variability.