The New Zealand scampi (Metanephrops challengeri ) is a lobster species found between 140 m and 700 m on New Zealand’s continental shelf and slopes. Adult scampi are sedentary and population connectivity is controlled by larval dispersion. The scampi industry is worth NZ$30M with the major fisheries focused on the Campbell Plateau, the Chatham Rise, Northland and the Bay of Plenty.
We use high resolution (5km) velocity and temperature fields from a regional marine climate down-scaling under historical, medium (SSP2 4.5) and high (SSP3 7.0) emissions climate scenarios to examine how changes in larval connectivity and sea floor temperatures will impact scampi. Larval connectivity was assessed using Lagrangian particle tracking with a drift period of 4-11 days. Temperature impacts were assessed by examining how frequently sea floor temperatures exceeded the species' critical temperature, 13°C.
We find few changes in larval connectivity. We also find that in the late 21st century the frequency of waters warmer than 13°C will exceed 5 days per year over much of the high population density areas on Chatham Rise and offshore of Northland and the Bay of Plenty. This will force a shift in fishing to deeper waters and to other fisheries management regions.